Texas’ 2026 midterms: The pivotal race shaping the U.S. House, Senate, and beyond.

The Outsider's take

The Texas Senate race has become one of the most highly scrutinised contests nationwide, driven more by an intense intra-party GOP clash than the general election itself (with Texas having not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, though 2026 brings new uncertainties). This race tests whether Paxton's controversies and Talarico's crossover appeal—particularly his strong support among Hispanic and white primary voters—can challenge a historically safe red seat. In true Texas fashion, the race took a dramatic turn this Monday, as racial tensions flared. It all started with a post on X (formerly Twitter) by Bo French, the Republican nominee for a statewide oil and gas regulatory position, who shared a photo of University of Texas students while condemning “foreigners” displacing Americans. Democrat James Talarico immediately condemned all forms of racism, prompting GOP nominee Ken Paxton to respond by criticising the other side for alleging that "white men are America's top terror threat" and for his own claims of praying to "overcome his whiteness,' whatever that means. Although these exchanges are somewhat trivial for a U.S. Senate race, they signal that the political temperature will only rise as November approaches.