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US Midterms 2026

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Senate projection map

Projection · not results

54

Democrats

51 for majority

46

Republicans

Alabama: Likely RepublicanAlaska: Leaning Democrat (flip)Arizona: no Senate race in 2026Colorado: Likely DemocratFlorida: Likely RepublicanGeorgia: Likely DemocratIndiana: no Senate race in 2026Kansas: Leaning Democrat (flip)Maine: Leaning Democrat (flip)Massachusetts: Likely DemocratMinnesota: Likely DemocratNew Jersey: Likely DemocratNorth Carolina: Leaning Democrat (flip)North Dakota: no Senate race in 2026Oklahoma: Likely RepublicanPennsylvania: no Senate race in 2026South Dakota: Likely RepublicanTexas: Leaning Democrat (flip)Wyoming: Likely RepublicanConnecticut: no Senate race in 2026Missouri: no Senate race in 2026West Virginia: Likely RepublicanIllinois: Likely DemocratNew Mexico: Likely DemocratArkansas: Likely RepublicanCalifornia: no Senate race in 2026Delaware: Likely DemocratHawaii: no Senate race in 2026Iowa: Leaning Democrat (flip)Kentucky: Likely RepublicanMaryland: no Senate race in 2026Michigan: Likely DemocratMississippi: Leaning RepublicanMontana: Likely RepublicanNew Hampshire: Likely DemocratNew York: no Senate race in 2026Ohio: Leaning Democrat (flip)Oregon: Likely DemocratTennessee: Likely RepublicanUtah: no Senate race in 2026Virginia: Likely DemocratWashington: no Senate race in 2026Wisconsin: no Senate race in 2026Nebraska: Leaning RepublicanSouth Carolina: Leaning RepublicanIdaho: Likely RepublicanNevada: no Senate race in 2026Vermont: no Senate race in 2026Louisiana: Leaning RepublicanRhode Island: Likely DemocratALAKAZCOFLGAINKSMEMAMNNJNCNDOKPASDTXWYCTMOWVILNMARCADEHIIAKYMDMIMSMTNHNYOHORTNUTVAWAWINESCIDNVVTLARI
  • Likely Democrat
  • Leaning Democrat (flip)
  • Likely Republican
  • Leaning Republican
  • No race / not up

Races to watch · latest AtlasIntel polls

  • MI
    El-Sayed · D+7
    GOP
    Hold
  • TX
    Talarico · D+6
    GOP
    Flip
  • ME
    Jackson · D+9
    GOP
    Flip
  • OH
    Brown · D+8
    GOP
    Flip
  • KS
    Hamilton · D+7
    GOP
    Flip
  • NC
    Cooper · D+14
    GOP
    Flip
  • IA
    Turek · D+4
    GOP
    Flip

Source: AtlasIntel Senate projection, 3 November 2026 and polls. Includes the 65 seats not up this year. Official results are in the tracker above.

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